What is La Niña?
The term La Niña refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to periodic cooling in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. In simple terms it represents the cool phase of the ENSO cycle and means that the ocean water temperatures are cooler than average.
How predictable are the impacts of La Niña?
There are two major sources of uncertainty in long-range forecasts predicting weather months in advance. The first source of uncertainty is how accurately we can predict La Niña or El Niño. La Niña is expected to emerge, with chances for La Niña gradually increasing from 66% to 74% during the November 2024 to January 2025 timeframe. The second source of uncertainty is the atmospheric response to La Niña or El Niño. That is, if La Niña occurs, does it always affect the weather in North America in the same way? To determine how La Niña impacts weather in North America, we can look at snowfall records during past La Niña events and compare them to a typical year.
How could La Niña affect Summit County this Winter Season
The last time this climate phenomenon occurred was back in 2016, looking back at the snowfall during the 2016-2017 winter season at some of the ski resorts across Colorado we can take an educated guess.
- Crested Butte: 350" (+37% average)
- Arapahoe Basin: 349" (+13% average) (Summit County)
- Telluride: 334" (+20% average)
So based on this previously recorded data it is fair to assume that if La Niña occurs as predicted we should have more snow this Winter Season.
All data is courtesy of BestSnow.net